Pub. 1 2012 Issue 4

June 2012 9 l e a d i n g a d v o c a t e f o r t h e b a n k i n g i n d u s t r y i n k a n s a s T he MOKAN Midwest Trust and Financial Services Conference continues to attract well-known national speakers. In its 33rd year, MOKAN had 254 trust officers from 14 states and 42 exhibitor booths. Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust Advisors, LP, was the keynote speaker for the 2012 MOKAN Trust & Financial Services Conference. Attendees heard him tell his “Tale of Two Economies: What people perceive about the US economy and what actually exists.” Mr. Wesbury calls this a “plow horse economy” – not winning any races, but plodding forward at a slow and steady pace. The fact is that America’s talent of innovation and the sheer momentum of wealth are propelling growth in spite of how the consumers feel. In the winter of 2008 – 2009, the common fear was that the world was coming to an end, and when our economy hit bottom, it would not bounce, but crash and burn. As measured by personal consumption, there was a significant decline from the peak in 2008 to the valley in 2009. Now, however, the increase has resumed and 300 million Americans are spending $750 billion more than they did at the highest point in 2008. While housing investment continues to drag, business investment as measured by equipment and software purchases is at an all-time high. While Mr. Wesbury did opine that President Obama will serve only one term, he stressed that we ought to separate our politics from our investing. He said he is an active citizen and voter, but the economy he believes in is the one he sees from the facts, and not what he hears from politicians. Natalie Choate, Nutter McClennen & Fish LLP, Boston, Massachusetts, packed the room Thursday morning for her informative talk, “IRAs with HAIR: What to do with an IRA that has a Shady Past.” While she has limited her practice to estate planning for retirement benefits, Natalie has been named one of The Best Lawyers in America for ten plus years. Annually since 2005, she has received the award of Massachusetts Super Lawyer. She has had numerous articles published and Natalie has also taught professional level courses in estate planning in 49 states. She told the crowd how easy it is to have a problem IRA, the pun - ishment and remedies. On Thursday afternoon, she packed two breakout sessions with her enlightening and entertaining “Death and Taxes: The Inherited Retirement Plan.” The bank, as fiduciary, needs to be able to talk with clients on how to handle those significant plan benefits. Natalie certainly gave the crowd insight. Between sessions, Natalie was busy selling her bestselling books which are leading resources for estate plan - ning professionals. Chris Kuehl is an economic forecaster and is the managing director of Armada Corporate Intelligence in Kansas City, Kansas. His presenta - tion for MOKAN 2012, entitled “Year of the Dragon or Another Year of Draggin’?” gave the audience a sense of what economic indicators are pointing to an economic recovery and what are still in the doldrums. Kuehl compared the US economy to the global economy by showing a map of the US with each state named for a foreign country that has the same size GDP as that state. This graphic reinforced that the US GDP is the largest in the world and reflects the GDP of the world. In the myth busting section, Kuehl pointed out that 75% of what Americans purchase is made in America but many just don’t realize that fact. Kuehl provided plenty of graphs and stats with many pointing toward economic recovery. Kuehl’s presentation concluded with his “Fearless Forecast” points: • Unemployment rates will track around 8-8.5% for the remainder of the year. • Oil prices will be in the $110-$120 range for the bulk of the year but spikes up and down are likely. • Home prices will stabilize but at low levels. • Consumer confidence will remain weaker than expected despite some good employment numbers. • The dollar will gain a little but will remain generally weak. The Euro will be weaker. • Interest rates will stay at or near zero through this year and into next. • Inflation will be rising by the end of the year – maybe 4%. All the data presented, and this fearless forecast, seems to conclude that the initial question posed may be unanswerable – that while we would like to believe some of the leading indicators of a recovery, this recovery might still be draggin’ on a bit longer. 2012 MOKAN Trust Conference Recap and Speaker Highlights Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust Advisors, LP continued on next page