Pub. 7 2018 Issue 3

April/May 2018 11 l e a d i n g a d v o c a t e f o r t h e b a n k i n g i n d u s t r y i n k a n s a s lead atmospheric scientist assessing and forecasting weather risks for the ag industry and he makes the case for a big weather event coming that will affect the ag market. He discussed global weather patterns and how they relate to spring and summer weather risks for ag production in the Midwest. U.S. weather models predict a pattern that will bring a dry pattern in the summer months. He emphasized that a slight shift in the jet stream by just 500 miles would put the Midwest back into a wet pattern, however. The first day ended with a light presentation from humorist Rik Roberts, dressed as Barney Fife from the Andy Griffith Show. His message brought comedy to keeping the small problems small by using time management and troubleshooting often. He also discussed the true cost of distractions from mobile devices and social media. Day two began with a Grain Outlook from Dr. Matt Roberts, Founder of Kernmantle Group. Roberts detailed how an explosion in wealth is the most fundamental indicator of the growth for the agriculture industry because wealthier people eat better. Roberts provided growth trends and an export overview for grains and meat products. He also covered marketing, pricing and stocks related to geopolitical, weather and consumption issues. Roberts contends that food is in demand, which is good for ag, but the biggest worry is the possibility of a recession over the next 24 months. Ed Elfmann, SVP of Agriculture and Rural Banking Policy for the American Bankers Association, opened his talk with the history of the ABA Ag Committee. He discussed observations from DC that include the rising farm debt and farm size/production changes. He discussed what ABA is doing in ag finance and key components of the 2018 Farm Bill. Randy Blach, CattleFax, discussed the cattle and beef position. Production is up but it is volatile with an unclear future for NAFTA. All packing plants are fully utilized currently but the industry needs to keep a lookout for signs of recession. Blach indicated that grain supply and cost is stable but oil prices and inflation are rising. Trade agreements that maintain access to open markets is vital with record production in beef, pork and poultry. Domestic demand alone won’t be high enough to absorb the supply. The closing speaker was Terry Holdren, CEO and General Counsel Pictured left to right are Josh Sullivan, Elsa Havel, and Mario Mejia, all from Grant County Bank, Ulysses. Don Keller, KANZA Bank, Hutchinson, and Jack Galle, First National Bank in Pratt, catch up between presentations. Dr. Matt Roberts, Kernmantle Group, delivers his talk on the Grain Outlook. Pictured from left to right are Tonya Barta, Farmers State Bank, Holton; Shan Hanes, Heartland Tri-State Bank, Elkhart; and Ed Elfmann, ABA’s SVP of Agricultural and Rural Banking Policy. continued on page 12